Poll Chart

2014 Iowa Senate: Ernst vs. Braley

Currently tracking 55 polls from 26 pollsters
Updated 22 days ago
Election on November 4, 2014

This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model

Our model suggests Ernst was slightly favored to win. (In 61.2% of simulations, Ernst beat Braley.)

Choices

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Overall Senate Outlook

On November 4, 2014, we reported a 79% chance that Republicans would take control of the Senate. (They did.)

See our full forecast » See the election results »

Latest Polls

Poll
Ernst
Braley
Undecided
Spread
Nov 1 – Nov 3, 2014
1,265 Likely Voters
48 45 5 Ernst +3
Oct 28 – Nov 2, 2014
778 Likely Voters
47 47 4 Braley +0
Oct 28 – Oct 31, 2014
701 Likely Voters
51 44 4 Ernst +7
Oct 25 – Oct 31, 2014
1,112 Likely Voters
42 43 13 Braley +1
FOX
Oct 28 – Oct 30, 2014
911 Likely Voters
45 44 7 Ernst +1
CNN
Oct 27 – Oct 30, 2014
647 Likely Voters
49 47 4 Ernst +2
Oct 23 – Oct 29, 2014
1,129 Likely Voters
45 45 Braley +0
Oct 25 – Oct 27, 2014
802 Registered Voters
45 46 8 Braley +1
Oct 22 – Oct 27, 2014
817 Likely Voters
49 45 5 Ernst +4
Oct 21 – Oct 24, 2014
1,121 Likely Voters
44 45 8 Braley +1
Oct 16 – Oct 23, 2014
2,322 Likely Voters
44 44 11 Braley +0
Oct 18 – Oct 22, 2014
772 Likely Voters
49 46 4 Ernst +3
Oct 18 – Oct 21, 2014
423 Likely Voters
47 46 2 Ernst +1
Oct 15 – Oct 21, 2014
964 Likely Voters
48 46 4 Ernst +2
Oct 15 – Oct 16, 2014
714 Likely Voters
47 48 5 Braley +1
Oct 11 – Oct 14, 2014
500 Likely Voters
47 43 7 Ernst +4
Oct 8 – Oct 13, 2014
967 Likely Voters
47 45 5 Ernst +2
Oct 8 – Oct 10, 2014
957 Likely Voters
46 43 7 Ernst +3
Oct 3 – Oct 8, 2014
1,000 Likely Voters
47 46 4 Ernst +1
Oct 4 – Oct 7, 2014
1,000 Likely Voters
38 39 21 Braley +1
Oct 1 – Oct 3, 2014
600 Likely Voters
42 42 12 Braley +0
Oct 3 – Oct 3, 2014
1,299 Likely Voters
50 41 9 Ernst +9
Sep 27 – Oct 1, 2014
778 Likely Voters
46 44 9 Ernst +2
Sep 20 – Oct 1, 2014
2,359 Likely Voters
43 44 12 Braley +1
Sep 25 – Sep 30, 2014
800 Likely Voters
46 47 Braley +1
Sep 29 – Sep 30, 2014
522 Likely Voters
50 41 10 Ernst +9
Sep 25 – Sep 28, 2014
1,192 Likely Voters
44 42 10 Ernst +2
Sep 21 – Sep 25, 2014
809 Likely Voters
42 42 Braley +0
Sep 21 – Sep 24, 2014
546 Likely Voters
44 38 12 Ernst +6
Sep 17 – Sep 18, 2014
750 Likely Voters
43 43 10 Braley +0
FOX
Sep 14 – Sep 16, 2014
600 Likely Voters
41 41 12 Braley +0
Sep 10 – Sep 15, 2014
1,167 Likely Voters
50 44 4 Ernst +6
CNN
Sep 8 – Sep 10, 2014
608 Likely Voters
48 49 2 Braley +1
Sep 2 – Sep 5, 2014
1,200 Likely Voters
41 45 14 Braley +4
Aug 18 – Sep 2, 2014
1,764 Likely Voters
42 44 13 Braley +2
Aug 28 – Aug 30, 2014
816 Likely Voters
45 43 12 Ernst +2
Aug 23 – Aug 26, 2014
500 Likely Voters
40 40 15 Braley +0
Aug 22 – Aug 24, 2014
915 Likely Voters
40 41 14 Braley +1
Aug 11 – Aug 12, 2014
750 Likely Voters
43 43 8 Braley +0
Jul 5 – Jul 24, 2014
2,007 Likely Voters
48 47 4 Ernst +1
Jul 17 – Jul 18, 2014
1,179 Likely Voters
43 44 13 Braley +1
Jul 7 – Jul 13, 2014
1,599 Registered Voters
43 43 14 Braley +0
Jun 12 – Jun 16, 2014
1,277 Registered Voters
40 44 16 Braley +4
Jun 4 – Jun 5, 2014
600 Likely Voters
48 42 10 Ernst +6
Jun 4 – Jun 5, 2014
750 Likely Voters
45 44 9 Ernst +1
Jun 4 – Jun 5, 2014
667 Likely Voters
49 44 7 Ernst +5
May 15 – May 19, 2014
914 Likely Voters
39 45 16 Braley +6
Apr 24 – Apr 30, 2014
500 Likely Voters
40 44 16 Braley +4
Apr 3 – Apr 8, 2014
800 Likely Voters
30 38 32 Braley +8
Mar 24 – Mar 25, 2014
750 Likely Voters
37 40 16 Braley +3
Mar 5 – Mar 10, 2014
1,411 Registered Voters
29 42 27 Braley +13
Feb 20 – Feb 23, 2014
869 Likely Voters
35 41 23 Braley +6
Dec 10 – Dec 15, 2013
1,617 Registered Voters
38 44 17 Braley +6
Nov 23 – Nov 24, 2013
985 Likely Voters
36 42 22 Braley +6
Jul 5 – Jul 7, 2013
668 Likely Voters
33 45 22 Braley +12

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