Poll Chart

2014 Kentucky Senate: McConnell vs. Grimes

Currently tracking 57 polls from 27 pollsters
Updated 3 months ago
Election on November 4, 2014

This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model

Our model suggests McConnell was strongly favored to win. (In 82.0% of simulations, McConnell beat Grimes.)

Choices

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Overall Senate Outlook

On November 4, 2014, we reported a 79% chance that Republicans would take control of the Senate. (They did.)

See our full forecast » See the election results »

Latest Polls

Poll
Grimes
McConnell
Undecided
Spread
Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2014
1,503 Likely Voters
42 50 McConnell +8
Oct 27 – Oct 30, 2014
556 Likely Voters
41 50 3 McConnell +9
Oct 25 – Oct 29, 2014
597 Likely Voters
43 48 6 McConnell +5
Oct 25 – Oct 27, 2014
600 Likely Voters
43 50 McConnell +7
Oct 16 – Oct 23, 2014
1,502 Likely Voters
39 45 14 McConnell +6
Oct 16 – Oct 21, 2014
815 Likely Voters
41 49 7 McConnell +8
Oct 16 – Oct 19, 2014
557 Likely Voters
42 45 8 McConnell +3
Oct 15 – Oct 19, 2014
655 Likely Voters
43 44 8 McConnell +1
Oct 15 – Oct 16, 2014
1,000 Likely Voters
44 52 3 McConnell +8
Oct 11 – Oct 12, 2014
1,020 Likely Voters
47 50 4 McConnell +3
FOX
Oct 4 – Oct 7, 2014
706 Likely Voters
41 45 9 McConnell +4
Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2014
632 Likely Voters
46 44 7 Grimes +2
Sep 20 – Oct 1, 2014
1,689 Likely Voters
41 47 9 McConnell +6
Sep 19 – Sep 27, 2014
1,800 Likely Voters
42 40 16 Grimes +2
Sep 13 – Sep 16, 2014
839 Likely Voters
41 51 8 McConnell +10
Sep 8 – Sep 12, 2014
944 Likely Voters
42 46 6 McConnell +4
Sep 4 – Sep 7, 2014
800 Likely Voters
43 42 15 Grimes +1
Sep 4 – Sep 7, 2014
742 Likely Voters
42 50 2 McConnell +8
Sep 2 – Sep 4, 2014
691 Likely Voters
39 47 6 McConnell +8
Sep 1 – Sep 2, 2014
750 Likely Voters
41 46 6 McConnell +5
Aug 18 – Sep 2, 2014
2,130 Likely Voters
42 47 9 McConnell +5
CNN
Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2014
671 Likely Voters
46 50 3 McConnell +4
Aug 25 – Aug 27, 2014
569 Likely Voters
42 46 8 McConnell +4
Aug 7 – Aug 10, 2014
991 Likely Voters
40 44 9 McConnell +4
Jul 5 – Jul 24, 2014
1,515 Likely Voters
46 50 2 McConnell +4
Jul 18 – Jul 23, 2014
604 Likely Voters
45 47 8 McConnell +2
Jul 17 – Jul 20, 2014
1,054 Likely Voters
45 45 10
Jun 22 – Jun 25, 2014
807 Likely Voters
42 49 McConnell +7
Jun 20 – Jun 22, 2014
682 Likely Voters
48 46 6 Grimes +2
Jun 14 – Jun 17, 2014
800 Likely Voters
43 48 McConnell +5
Jun 4 – Jun 5, 2014
808 Likely Voters
49 46 5 Grimes +3
May 28 – May 29, 2014
750 Likely Voters
41 48 7 McConnell +7
May 23 – May 24, 2014
608 Likely Voters
44 47 8 McConnell +3
May 14 – May 16, 2014
1,475 Likely Voters
43 42 7 Grimes +1
Apr 30 – May 6, 2014
2,353 Registered Voters
45 46 8 McConnell +1
Apr 24 – Apr 30, 2014
500 Likely Voters
45 46 9 McConnell +1
Apr 15 – Apr 17, 2014
1,359 Registered Voters
36 43 12 McConnell +7
Apr 8 – Apr 15, 2014
891 Registered Voters
43 44 11 McConnell +1
Apr 1 – Apr 2, 2014
663 Registered Voters
45 44 12 Grimes +1
Feb 8 – Feb 11, 2014
1,002 Likely Voters
42 43 15 McConnell +1
Jan 30 – Feb 4, 2014
1,082 Registered Voters
46 42 12 Grimes +4
Jan 29 – Jan 30, 2014
500 Likely Voters
42 42 10
Jan 24 – Jan 26, 2014
882 Likely Voters
44 45 11 McConnell +1
Jan 2 – Jan 2, 2014
683 Registered Voters
37 42 13 McConnell +5
Dec 29, 2013 – Jan 2, 2014
1,153 Registered Voters
37 42 13 McConnell +5
Dec 12 – Dec 15, 2013
1,509 Likely Voters
42 43 15 McConnell +1
Oct 24 – Oct 29, 2013
603 Likely Voters
37 37 19
Oct 21 – Oct 27, 2013
600 Adults
40 41 19 McConnell +1
Oct 14 – Oct 15, 2013
1,193 Likely Voters
45 43 12 Grimes +2
Aug 5 – Aug 15, 2013
5,000 Registered Voters
46 40 14 Grimes +6
Jul 23 – Jul 24, 2013
624 Likely Voters
40 48 12 McConnell +8
Jul 20 – Jul 24, 2013
750 Likely Voters
44 42 14 Grimes +2
Jul 19 – Jul 21, 2013
1,210 Likely Voters
45 44 11 Grimes +1
Jun 1 – Jun 2, 2013
623 Likely Voters
40 47 14 McConnell +7
May 23 – May 24, 2013
556 Likely Voters
45 45 10
Apr 5 – Apr 7, 2013
1,052 Likely Voters
41 45 14 McConnell +4
Dec 7 – Dec 9, 2012
1,266 Likely Voters
40 47 13 McConnell +7

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