Poll Chart

2016 Pennsylvania Senate: Toomey vs. McGinty

Currently tracking 58 polls from 27 pollsters
Updated 30 days ago
Election on November 8, 2016

This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model

Our model of the polls suggests McGinty was very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, McGinty led Toomey.)

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Latest Polls

Poll
Toomey
McGinty
Clifford
Other
Undecided
Spread
Nov 1 – Nov 7
2,845 Likely Voters
45 49 6 McGinty +4
Nov 3 – Nov 5
924 Likely Voters
46 47 1 6 McGinty +1
Oct 30 – Nov 4
405 Likely Voters
43 42 15 Toomey +1
Nov 1 – Nov 2
1,016 Registered Voters
43 45 12 McGinty +2
Oct 31 – Nov 1
1,050 Likely Voters
44 46 10 McGinty +2
Oct 31 – Nov 1
681 Likely Voters
41 47 5 1 8 McGinty +6
Oct 29 – Nov 1
403 Likely Voters
44 47 3 0 6 McGinty +3
Oct 27 – Nov 1
612 Likely Voters
47 48 1 5 McGinty +1
CNN
Oct 27 – Nov 1
799 Likely Voters
46 51 3 1 McGinty +5
Oct 25 – Oct 31
2,255 Likely Voters
46 49 5 McGinty +3
Oct 26 – Oct 30
652 Likely Voters
35 47 1 2 16 McGinty +12
Oct 26 – Oct 28
1,091 Likely Voters
41 44 2 13 McGinty +3
Oct 20 – Oct 26
420 Likely Voters
41 41 17
Oct 23 – Oct 25
824 Likely Voters
44 47 0 9 McGinty +3
Oct 6 – Oct 17
1,467 Likely Voters
40 43 4 14 McGinty +3
Oct 10 – Oct 16
660 Likely Voters
49 45 0 6 Toomey +4
Oct 8 – Oct 16
1,449 Likely Voters
47 47 6
Oct 7 – Oct 11
806 Likely Voters
45 47 2 6 McGinty +2
Oct 7 – Oct 10
1,457 Likely Voters
44 44 12
Oct 4 – Oct 9
764 Likely Voters
42 38 7 1 13 Toomey +4
Oct 5 – Oct 7
997 Likely Voters
42 42 1 15
Oct 3 – Oct 6
709 Likely Voters
44 48 2 6 McGinty +4
Sep 30 – Oct 3
402 Likely Voters
46 46 3 0 5
Sep 28 – Oct 2
496 Likely Voters
35 41 2 0 22 McGinty +6
Sep 27 – Oct 2
535 Likely Voters
50 42 0 7 Toomey +8
Sep 27 – Sep 28
886 Likely Voters
35 40 9 16 McGinty +5
CNN
Sep 20 – Sep 25
771 Likely Voters
46 49 3 2 McGinty +3
Sep 19 – Sep 23
486 Likely Voters
41 40 20 Toomey +1
Sep 12 – Sep 23
420 Registered Voters
43 42 16 Toomey +1
Sep 10 – Sep 19
400 Likely Voters
45 43 0 11 Toomey +2
Sep 12 – Sep 16
405 Likely Voters
38 43 19 McGinty +5
Aug 29 – Sep 7
778 Likely Voters
46 45 1 7 Toomey +1
Aug 30 – Sep 2
1,091 Likely Voters
39 39 2 20
Aug 30 – Aug 31
814 Likely Voters
41 44 15 McGinty +3
Aug 26 – Aug 29
402 Likely Voters
41 45 6 1 8 McGinty +4
Aug 25 – Aug 29
496 Likely Voters
38 43 18 McGinty +5
Aug 26 – Aug 27
1,194 Likely Voters
40 46 14 McGinty +6
Aug 3 – Aug 7
834 Registered Voters
44 48 1 7 McGinty +4
Jul 30 – Aug 7
815 Likely Voters
44 47 0 9 McGinty +3
Jul 31 – Aug 4
772 Likely Voters
40 42 18 McGinty +2
Jul 29 – Aug 1
389 Likely Voters
38 39 23 McGinty +1
Jul 29 – Jul 31
1,505 Likely Voters
42 41 17 Toomey +1
Jul 25 – Jul 27
500 Likely Voters
36 43 1 20 McGinty +7
Jun 30 – Jul 11
982 Registered Voters
49 39 1 12 Toomey +10
Jul 5 – Jul 10
829 Registered Voters
44 47 2 8 McGinty +3
Jun 22 – Jun 23
980 Likely Voters
40 39 21 Toomey +1
Jun 11 – Jun 20
300 Likely Voters
46 38 1 15 Toomey +8
Jun 8 – Jun 19
950 Registered Voters
49 40 4 8 Toomey +9
Jun 8 – Jun 9
965 Likely Voters
45 42 12 Toomey +3
Jun 3 – Jun 5
1,106 Likely Voters
41 38 21 Toomey +3
Apr 27 – May 8
1,077 Registered Voters
45 44 1 10 Toomey +1
Mar 30 – Apr 4
1,737 Registered Voters
47 38 4 12 Toomey +9
Mar 1 – Mar 11
421 Registered Voters
47 34 2 17 Toomey +13
Oct 8 – Oct 11, 2015
1,012 Likely Voters
43 36 21 Toomey +7
Sep 25 – Oct 5, 2015
1,049 Registered Voters
51 31 4 15 Toomey +20
Sep 9 – Sep 10, 2015
700 Likely Voters
48 34 18 Toomey +14
Aug 17 – Aug 24, 2015
605 Registered Voters
35 28 38 Undecided +3
Aug 7 – Aug 18, 2015
1,085 Registered Voters
48 32 3 17 Toomey +16

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