Poll Chart

2014 Arkansas Senate: Cotton vs. Pryor

Currently tracking 61 polls from 32 pollsters

Updated about 4 years ago

Election on November 4, 2014

This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model

Our model suggests Cotton was strongly favored to win. (In 84.8% of simulations, Cotton beat Pryor.)

Choices

Click a choice to show or hide it on the chart.

Cotton51.7%
Pryor45.6% incumbent
Undecided2.7%

Overall Senate Outlook

On November 4, 2014, we reported a 79% chance that Republicans would take control of the Senate. (They did.)

See our full forecast » See the election results »

Latest Polls

Poll	Cotton	Pryor	Undecided	Spread
PPP (D) Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2014 1,092 Likely Voters	49	41	5	Cotton +8
Rasmussen Oct 27 – Oct 29, 2014 976 Likely Voters	51	44	2	Cotton +7
U of Arkansas Oct 21 – Oct 27, 2014 568 Likely Voters	49	36		Cotton +13
Opinion Research Associates (D-Arkansas Democratic Party) Oct 25 – Oct 26, 2014 401 Likely Voters	44	45	10	Pryor +1
NBC/Marist Oct 19 – Oct 23, 2014 621 Likely Voters	45	43	7	Cotton +2
CBS/NYT/YouGov Oct 16 – Oct 23, 2014 1,567 Likely Voters	47	42	10	Cotton +5
Hendrix College/Talk Business Oct 15 – Oct 16, 2014 2,075 Likely Voters	49	41	6	Cotton +8
Rasmussen Oct 13 – Oct 15, 2014 940 Likely Voters	47	44		Cotton +3
FOX Oct 4 – Oct 7, 2014 707 Likely Voters	46	39	11	Cotton +7
Opinion Research Associates (D-Arkansas Democratic Party) Oct 1 – Oct 5, 2014 400 Likely Voters	42	45	9	Pryor +3
CBS/NYT/YouGov Sep 20 – Oct 1, 2014 1,991 Likely Voters	45	41	13	Cotton +4
Rasmussen Sep 24 – Sep 25, 2014 750 Likely Voters	47	40		Cotton +7
Suffolk/USA Today Sep 20 – Sep 23, 2014 500 Likely Voters	43	45	7	Pryor +2
PPP (D) Sep 18 – Sep 21, 2014 1,453 Likely Voters	43	38	13	Cotton +5
Hickman (D-DSCC) Sep 13 – Sep 18, 2014 801 Likely Voters	43	46	11	Pryor +3
Gravis Marketing Sep 8 – Sep 11, 2014 902 Registered Voters	47	43	8	Cotton +4
Hickman (D-DSCC) Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2014 700 Likely Voters	43	45	12	Pryor +2
NBC/Marist Sep 1 – Sep 2, 2014 639 Likely Voters	45	40	9	Cotton +5
CNN Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2014 523 Likely Voters	49	47	4	Cotton +2
CBS/NYT/YouGov Aug 18 – Sep 2, 2014 1,572 Likely Voters	43	39	16	Cotton +4
Rasmussen Aug 25 – Aug 26, 2014 750 Likely Voters	43	44		Pryor +1
Opinion Research Associates (D-Arkansas Democratic Party) Aug 6 – Aug 14, 2014 414 Registered Voters	41	46	9	Pryor +5
PPP (D) Aug 1 – Aug 3, 2014 1,066 Likely Voters	41	39	14	Cotton +2
Hendrix College/Talk Business Jul 22 – Jul 25, 2014 1,780 Likely Voters	44	42	7	Cotton +2
Anzalone Liszt Grove (D-DSCC) Jul 20 – Jul 24, 2014 600 Likely Voters	46	48		Pryor +2
CBS/NYT/YouGov Jul 5 – Jul 24, 2014 1,577 Likely Voters	50	46	3	Cotton +4
Harstad (D-Pryor) Jul 7 – Jul 10, 2014 807 Likely Voters	39	45		Pryor +6
Gravis Marketing Jul 7 – Jul 8, 2014 987 Registered Voters	51	44		Cotton +7
Impact (R) Jun 29 – Jun 29, 2014 1,290 Registered Voters	47	43	10	Cotton +4
OnMessage (R-Cotton) Jun 9 – Jun 11, 2014 600 Likely Voters	47	40		Cotton +7
Fabrizio (R-Government Integrity Fund) Jun 6 – Jun 9, 2014 600 Likely Voters	51	43	5	Cotton +8
Magellan (R-National Mining Association) Jun 4 – Jun 5, 2014 755 Likely Voters	49	45	4	Cotton +4
Public Opinion Strategies (R-American Crossroads) May 27 – May 29, 2014 500 Likely Voters	46	41	7	Cotton +5
Rasmussen May 27 – May 28, 2014 750 Likely Voters	47	43		Cotton +4
OnMessage (R-Cotton) May 6 – May 8, 2014 600 Likely Voters	42	40	12	Cotton +2
NBC/Marist Apr 30 – May 4, 2014 876 Registered Voters	40	51	7	Pryor +11
PPP (D) Apr 25 – Apr 27, 2014 840 Likely Voters	42	43	16	Pryor +1
Magellan (R-Liberty Foundation of America) Apr 14 – Apr 15, 2014 857 Likely Voters	46	43	7	Cotton +3
NYT/Kaiser Apr 8 – Apr 15, 2014 857 Registered Voters	36	46	15	Pryor +10
Harper (R-American Crossroads) Apr 9 – Apr 10, 2014 522 Likely Voters	39	39	22
Opinion Research Associates (D-Give Arkansas a Raise Now) Apr 1 – Apr 8, 2014 400 Likely Voters	38	48	13	Pryor +10
Hendrix College/Talk Business Apr 3 – Apr 4, 2014 1,068 Likely Voters	43	46	8	Pryor +3
Anzalone Liszt Grove (D-DSCC) Mar 27 – Apr 2, 2014 600 Likely Voters	45	48	7	Pryor +3
Hickman (D-Consumer Energy Alliance) Feb 17 – Feb 20, 2014 400 Likely Voters	37	40	14	Pryor +3
Impact (R) Feb 10 – Feb 10, 2014 1,202 Registered Voters	46	42	13	Cotton +4
Rasmussen Feb 4 – Feb 5, 2014 500 Likely Voters	45	40		Cotton +5
Harper (R-American Crossroads) Jan 26 – Jan 27, 2014 533 Likely Voters	42	36	22	Cotton +6
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) Dec 13 – Dec 15, 2013 1,004 Likely Voters	44	44	12
The Polling Company Inc./WomanTrend (R-Citizens United) Dec 6 – Dec 7, 2013 400 Likely Voters	48	41	11	Cotton +7
Impact (R) Oct 24 – Oct 24, 2013 911 Registered Voters	42	41	18	Cotton +1
OnMessage (R-Cotton) Oct 15 – Oct 17, 2013 600 Likely Voters	45	41	15	Cotton +4
U of Arkansas Oct 10 – Oct 17, 2013 618 Likely Voters	37	36		Cotton +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) Oct 14 – Oct 15, 2013 955 Likely Voters	41	44	15	Pryor +3
Hendrix College/Talk Business Oct 8 – Oct 8, 2013 603 Likely Voters	41	42	17	Pryor +1
Harper (R-American Crossroads) Sep 24 – Sep 26, 2013 622 Likely Voters	42	45	13	Pryor +3
The Polling Company Inc./WomanTrend (R-Free Beacon) Aug 6 – Aug 7, 2013 600 Registered Voters	43	45		Pryor +2
Harper (R-Conservative Intel) Aug 4 – Aug 5, 2013 587 Likely Voters	43	41	16	Cotton +2
OnMessage (R-NRSC) Jul 29 – Jul 30, 2013 600 Likely Voters	44	42	14	Cotton +2
AFSCME Polling Center (D) Jul 23 – Jul 27, 2013 729 Likely Voters	35	43	21	Pryor +8
Basswood (R-Senate Conservatives Fund) Jun 22 – Jun 23, 2013 600 Likely Voters	40	41	19	Pryor +1
Basswood (R - Club for Growth/Senate Conservatives Fund) Mar 16 – Mar 17, 2013 600 Likely Voters	43	35	22	Cotton +8