Poll Chart

2014 Virginia Senate: Gillespie vs. Warner

Currently tracking 22 polls from 10 pollsters

Updated almost 3 years ago

Election on November 4, 2014

This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model

Our model suggests Warner was strongly favored to win. (In 96.8% of simulations, Warner beat Gillespie.)

Choices

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Warner50.3% incumbent
Gillespie38.7%
Undecided10.9%

Overall Senate Outlook

On November 4, 2014, we reported a 79% chance that Republicans would take control of the Senate. (They did.)

See our full forecast » See the election results »

Latest Polls

Poll	Warner	Gillespie	Undecided	Spread
Christopher Newport Oct 23 – Oct 29, 2014 634 Likely Voters	51	44	3	Warner +7
Roanoke College Oct 20 – Oct 25, 2014 738 Likely Voters	47	35	15	Warner +12
CBS/NYT/YouGov Oct 16 – Oct 23, 2014 1,605 Likely Voters	49	39	11	Warner +10
University of Mary Washington/PSRAI Oct 1 – Oct 6, 2014 444 Likely Voters	47	37	10	Warner +10
Christopher Newport Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2014 690 Likely Voters	51	39	7	Warner +12
CBS/NYT/YouGov Sep 20 – Oct 1, 2014 1,656 Likely Voters	51	39	9	Warner +12
PPP (D) Sep 22 – Sep 23, 2014 625 Likely Voters	48	35	12	Warner +13
Quinnipiac Sep 17 – Sep 22, 2014 1,010 Likely Voters	48	39	7	Warner +9
Roanoke College Sep 13 – Sep 19, 2014 630 Likely Voters	46	27	22	Warner +19
Christopher Newport Sep 2 – Sep 7, 2014 713 Likely Voters	53	31	11	Warner +22
CBS/NYT/YouGov Aug 18 – Sep 2, 2014 1,635 Likely Voters	51	39	9	Warner +12
Hampton University Jul 27 – Jul 30, 2014 804 Likely Voters	53	28	14	Warner +25
CBS/NYT/YouGov Jul 5 – Jul 24, 2014 2,047 Likely Voters	53	43	2	Warner +10
Roanoke College Jul 14 – Jul 19, 2014 556 Registered Voters	47	22	25	Warner +22
Rasmussen Jun 11 – Jun 12, 2014 1,000 Likely Voters	53	36	9	Warner +17
PPP (D-MoveOn) Apr 1 – Apr 2, 2014 689 Likely Voters	49	35	16	Warner +14
Quinnipiac Mar 19 – Mar 24, 2014 1,288 Registered Voters	46	31	17	Warner +15
Roanoke College Feb 22 – Feb 28, 2014 707 Registered Voters	56	29	14	Warner +27
Harper (R-American Action Network) Feb 4 – Feb 5, 2014 936 Likely Voters	44	38	18	Warner +6
Christopher Newport Jan 15 – Jan 22, 2014 1,023 Registered Voters	50	30	18	Warner +20
Rasmussen Jan 20 – Jan 21, 2014 1,000 Likely Voters	51	37	9	Warner +14
Roanoke College Jan 13 – Jan 17, 2014 553 Registered Voters	50	21	26	Warner +24