Poll Chart
2014 Virginia Senate: Gillespie vs. Warner
This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.
HuffPost Model
Our model suggests Warner was strongly favored to win. (In 96.8% of simulations, Warner beat Gillespie.)
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Overall Senate Outlook
On November 4, 2014, we reported a 79% chance that Republicans would take control of the Senate. (They did.)
Latest Polls
Poll | Warner |
Gillespie |
Undecided |
Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23 – Oct 29, 2014
634 Likely Voters
|
51 | 44 | 3 | Warner +7 |
Oct 20 – Oct 25, 2014
738 Likely Voters
|
47 | 35 | 15 | Warner +12 |
Oct 16 – Oct 23, 2014
1,605 Likely Voters
|
49 | 39 | 11 | Warner +10 |
Oct 1 – Oct 6, 2014
444 Likely Voters
|
47 | 37 | 10 | Warner +10 |
Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2014
690 Likely Voters
|
51 | 39 | 7 | Warner +12 |
Sep 20 – Oct 1, 2014
1,656 Likely Voters
|
51 | 39 | 9 | Warner +12 |
Sep 22 – Sep 23, 2014
625 Likely Voters
|
48 | 35 | 12 | Warner +13 |
Sep 17 – Sep 22, 2014
1,010 Likely Voters
|
48 | 39 | 7 | Warner +9 |
Sep 13 – Sep 19, 2014
630 Likely Voters
|
46 | 27 | 22 | Warner +19 |
Sep 2 – Sep 7, 2014
713 Likely Voters
|
53 | 31 | 11 | Warner +22 |
Aug 18 – Sep 2, 2014
1,635 Likely Voters
|
51 | 39 | 9 | Warner +12 |
Jul 27 – Jul 30, 2014
804 Likely Voters
|
53 | 28 | 14 | Warner +25 |
Jul 5 – Jul 24, 2014
2,047 Likely Voters
|
53 | 43 | 2 | Warner +10 |
Jul 14 – Jul 19, 2014
556 Registered Voters
|
47 | 22 | 25 | Warner +22 |
Jun 11 – Jun 12, 2014
1,000 Likely Voters
|
53 | 36 | 9 | Warner +17 |
Apr 1 – Apr 2, 2014
689 Likely Voters
|
49 | 35 | 16 | Warner +14 |
Mar 19 – Mar 24, 2014
1,288 Registered Voters
|
46 | 31 | 17 | Warner +15 |
Feb 22 – Feb 28, 2014
707 Registered Voters
|
56 | 29 | 14 | Warner +27 |
Feb 4 – Feb 5, 2014
936 Likely Voters
|
44 | 38 | 18 | Warner +6 |
Jan 15 – Jan 22, 2014
1,023 Registered Voters
|
50 | 30 | 18 | Warner +20 |
Jan 20 – Jan 21, 2014
1,000 Likely Voters
|
51 | 37 | 9 | Warner +14 |
Jan 13 – Jan 17, 2014
553 Registered Voters
|
50 | 21 | 26 | Warner +24 |