View HuffPost's Senate forecast
Poll Chart
2016 Florida Senate: Rubio vs. Murphy
This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.
HuffPost Model
Our model of the polls suggests Rubio was very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, Rubio led Murphy.)
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Latest Polls
Poll | Rubio |
Murphy |
Other |
Undecided |
Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 1 – Nov 7, 2016
4,092 Likely Voters
|
48 | 49 | 3 | Murphy +1 | |
Nov 3 – Nov 6, 2016
884 Likely Voters
|
50 | 43 | 2 | 5 | Rubio +7 |
Nov 2 – Nov 4, 2016
1,188 Likely Voters
|
47 | 44 | 3 | 6 | Rubio +3 |
Nov 1 – Nov 2, 2016
603 Likely Voters
|
50 | 46 | 4 | Rubio +4 | |
Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2016
626 Likely Voters
|
50 | 44 | 1 | 4 | Rubio +6 |
Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2016
773 Likely Voters
|
49 | 48 | 2 | 0 | Rubio +1 |
Oct 25 – Oct 31, 2016
2,809 Likely Voters
|
49 | 47 | 4 | Rubio +2 | |
Oct 25 – Oct 30, 2016
718 Likely Voters
|
49 | 43 | 1 | 7 | Rubio +6 |
Oct 25 – Oct 27, 2016
814 Likely Voters
|
51 | 42 | 0 | 7 | Rubio +9 |
Oct 25 – Oct 26, 2016
698 Likely Voters
|
49 | 43 | 4 | 4 | Rubio +6 |
Oct 25 – Oct 26, 2016
779 Likely Voters
|
51 | 43 | 4 | 2 | Rubio +8 |
Oct 22 – Oct 26, 2016
1,028 Likely Voters
|
44 | 39 | 17 | Rubio +5 | |
Oct 20 – Oct 25, 2016
797 Likely Voters
|
49 | 43 | 1 | 7 | Rubio +6 |
Oct 21 – Oct 24, 2016
953 Likely Voters
|
51 | 41 | 3 | 5 | Rubio +10 |
Oct 20 – Oct 24, 2016
1,251 Likely Voters
|
45 | 41 | 8 | 6 | Rubio +4 |
Oct 20 – Oct 21, 2016
1,042 Likely Voters
|
44 | 42 | 6 | 8 | Rubio +2 |
Oct 20 – Oct 20, 2016
538 Likely Voters
|
46 | 46 | 8 | ||
Oct 17 – Oct 18, 2016
892 Likely Voters
|
45 | 44 | 11 | Rubio +1 | |
Oct 10 – Oct 16, 2016
660 Likely Voters
|
49 | 47 | 0 | 4 | Rubio +2 |
Oct 8 – Oct 16, 2016
1,702 Likely Voters
|
51 | 45 | 4 | Rubio +6 | |
Oct 12 – Oct 13, 2016
985 Likely Voters
|
44 | 38 | 6 | 12 | Rubio +6 |
Oct 11 – Oct 13, 2016
1,799 Registered Voters
|
44 | 36 | 19 | Rubio +8 | |
Oct 5 – Oct 12, 2016
1,532 Likely Voters
|
40 | 38 | 6 | 15 | Rubio +2 |
Oct 10 – Oct 11, 2016
533 Likely Voters
|
48 | 44 | 9 | Rubio +4 | |
Oct 3 – Oct 5, 2016
700 Likely Voters
|
48 | 46 | 2 | 4 | Rubio +2 |
Sep 27 – Oct 4, 2016
696 Likely Voters
|
48 | 41 | 1 | 10 | Rubio +7 |
Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2016
545 Likely Voters
|
48 | 44 | 8 | Rubio +4 | |
Sep 28 – Sep 29, 2016
619 Likely Voters
|
47 | 43 | 10 | Rubio +4 | |
Sep 27 – Sep 29, 2016
820 Likely Voters
|
47 | 40 | 7 | 6 | Rubio +7 |
Sep 27 – Sep 28, 2016
826 Likely Voters
|
42 | 35 | 9 | 15 | Rubio +7 |
Sep 19 – Sep 21, 2016
500 Likely Voters
|
43 | 34 | 4 | 19 | Rubio +9 |
Sep 15 – Sep 20, 2016
617 Likely Voters
|
46 | 42 | 12 | Rubio +4 | |
Sep 16 – Sep 19, 2016
400 Likely Voters
|
47 | 45 | 3 | 5 | Rubio +2 |
Sep 10 – Sep 16, 2016
475 Likely Voters
|
44 | 35 | 21 | Rubio +9 | |
Sep 10 – Sep 14, 2016
867 Likely Voters
|
48 | 42 | 0 | 9 | Rubio +6 |
Sep 7 – Sep 12, 2016
788 Likely Voters
|
54 | 43 | 2 | 0 | Rubio +11 |
Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2016
601 Likely Voters
|
50 | 43 | 1 | 6 | Rubio +7 |
Sep 4 – Sep 6, 2016
744 Likely Voters
|
40 | 37 | 10 | 13 | Rubio +3 |
Aug 22 – Aug 24, 2016
625 Registered Voters
|
46 | 43 | 11 | Rubio +3 | |
Aug 18 – Aug 24, 2016
600 Registered Voters
|
43 | 42 | 16 | Rubio +1 | |
Aug 14 – Aug 18, 2016
1,380 Likely Voters
|
46 | 38 | 16 | Rubio +8 | |
Aug 12 – Aug 15, 2016
402 Likely Voters
|
48 | 43 | 3 | 5 | Rubio +5 |
Aug 10 – Aug 10, 2016
622 Likely Voters
|
45 | 43 | 12 | Rubio +2 | |
Aug 4 – Aug 10, 2016
862 Registered Voters
|
49 | 43 | 3 | 5 | Rubio +6 |
Jul 30 – Aug 7, 2016
1,056 Likely Voters
|
48 | 45 | 0 | 7 | Rubio +3 |
Aug 1 – Aug 3, 2016
500 Likely Voters
|
46 | 33 | 21 | Rubio +13 | |
Jul 5 – Jul 11, 2016
871 Registered Voters
|
47 | 44 | 2 | 7 | Rubio +3 |
Jun 30 – Jul 11, 2016
1,015 Registered Voters
|
50 | 37 | 1 | 12 | Rubio +13 |
Jul 9 – Jul 10, 2016
700 Likely Voters
|
40 | 33 | 5 | 21 | Rubio +7 |
Jun 25 – Jun 27, 2016
1,678 Likely Voters
|
43 | 43 | 7 | 8 | |
Jun 8 – Jun 19, 2016
975 Registered Voters
|
47 | 40 | 10 | Rubio +7 | |
Jun 15 – Jun 16, 2016
508 Likely Voters
|
41 | 42 | 17 | Murphy +1 | |
Jun 2 – Jun 5, 2016
737 Likely Voters
|
43 | 44 | 13 | Murphy +1 | |
Apr 25 – Apr 27, 2016
604 Likely Voters
|
49 | 41 | 10 | Rubio +8 | |
Sep 11 – Sep 13, 2015
814 Likely Voters
|
46 | 40 | 14 | Rubio +6 | |
Mar 19 – Mar 22, 2015
923 Likely Voters
|
48 | 41 | 11 | Rubio +7 | |
Mar 3 – Mar 5, 2015
800 Registered Voters
|
50 | 38 | 12 | Rubio +12 | |
Sep 4 – Sep 7, 2014
818 Likely Voters
|
46 | 41 | 12 | Rubio +5 |