Poll Chart

2016 Florida Senate: Rubio vs. Murphy

Currently tracking 58 polls from 28 pollsters

Updated over 1 year ago

Election on November 8, 2016

This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model

Our model of the polls suggests Rubio was very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, Rubio led Murphy.)

Choices

Click a choice to show or hide it on the chart.

Rubio48.7% incumbent
Murphy43.2%
Undecided5.9%
Other2.3%

View HuffPost's Senate forecast

Latest Polls

Poll	Rubio	Murphy	Other	Undecided	Spread
SurveyMonkey Nov 1 – Nov 7, 2016 4,092 Likely Voters	48	49		3	Murphy +1
Quinnipiac Nov 3 – Nov 6, 2016 884 Likely Voters	50	43	2	5	Rubio +7
CBS/YouGov Nov 2 – Nov 4, 2016 1,188 Likely Voters	47	44	3	6	Rubio +3
Opinion Savvy/Fox 13/Fox 35 Nov 1 – Nov 2, 2016 603 Likely Voters	50	46		4	Rubio +4
Quinnipiac Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2016 626 Likely Voters	50	44	1	4	Rubio +6
CNN Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2016 773 Likely Voters	49	48	2	0	Rubio +1
SurveyMonkey Oct 25 – Oct 31, 2016 2,809 Likely Voters	49	47		4	Rubio +2
TargetSmart/William & Mary Oct 25 – Oct 30, 2016 718 Likely Voters	49	43	1	7	Rubio +6
NYT Upshot/Siena Oct 25 – Oct 27, 2016 814 Likely Voters	51	42	0	7	Rubio +9
Dixie Strategies (R) Oct 25 – Oct 26, 2016 698 Likely Voters	49	43	4	4	Rubio +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist Oct 25 – Oct 26, 2016 779 Likely Voters	51	43	4	2	Rubio +8
Saint Leo University Oct 22 – Oct 26, 2016 1,028 Likely Voters	44	39		17	Rubio +5
UNF Oct 20 – Oct 25, 2016 797 Likely Voters	49	43	1	7	Rubio +6
Bloomberg/Selzer Oct 21 – Oct 24, 2016 953 Likely Voters	51	41	3	5	Rubio +10
SurveyUSA/Bay News 9/News 13 Oct 20 – Oct 24, 2016 1,251 Likely Voters	45	41	8	6	Rubio +4
CBS/YouGov Oct 20 – Oct 21, 2016 1,042 Likely Voters	44	42	6	8	Rubio +2
Opinion Savvy/Fox 13/Fox 35 Oct 20 – Oct 20, 2016 538 Likely Voters	46	46		8
Lucid/The Times-Picayune Oct 17 – Oct 18, 2016 892 Likely Voters	45	44		11	Rubio +1
Quinnipiac Oct 10 – Oct 16, 2016 660 Likely Voters	49	47	0	4	Rubio +2
WashPost/SurveyMonkey Oct 8 – Oct 16, 2016 1,702 Likely Voters	51	45		4	Rubio +6
PPP (D) Oct 12 – Oct 13, 2016 985 Likely Voters	44	38	6	12	Rubio +6
Gravis Marketing/Breitbart Oct 11 – Oct 13, 2016 1,799 Registered Voters	44	36		19	Rubio +8
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 5 – Oct 12, 2016 1,532 Likely Voters	40	38	6	15	Rubio +2
Opinion Savvy Oct 10 – Oct 11, 2016 533 Likely Voters	48	44		9	Rubio +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist Oct 3 – Oct 5, 2016 700 Likely Voters	48	46	2	4	Rubio +2
UNF Sep 27 – Oct 4, 2016 696 Likely Voters	48	41	1	10	Rubio +7
Quinnipiac Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2016 545 Likely Voters	48	44		8	Rubio +4
Opinion Savvy/Fox 13/Fox 35 Sep 28 – Sep 29, 2016 619 Likely Voters	47	43		10	Rubio +4
Mason-Dixon Sep 27 – Sep 29, 2016 820 Likely Voters	47	40	7	6	Rubio +7
PPP (D-Vote Vets Action Fund) Sep 27 – Sep 28, 2016 826 Likely Voters	42	35	9	15	Rubio +7
Suffolk Sep 19 – Sep 21, 2016 500 Likely Voters	43	34	4	19	Rubio +9
Cherry (R-Florida Chamber of Commerce) Sep 15 – Sep 20, 2016 617 Likely Voters	46	42		12	Rubio +4
Monmouth University Sep 16 – Sep 19, 2016 400 Likely Voters	47	45	3	5	Rubio +2
Saint Leo University Sep 10 – Sep 16, 2016 475 Likely Voters	44	35		21	Rubio +9
NYT Upshot/Siena Sep 10 – Sep 14, 2016 867 Likely Voters	48	42	0	9	Rubio +6
CNN Sep 7 – Sep 12, 2016 788 Likely Voters	54	43	2	0	Rubio +11
Quinnipiac Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2016 601 Likely Voters	50	43	1	6	Rubio +7
PPP (D) Sep 4 – Sep 6, 2016 744 Likely Voters	40	37	10	13	Rubio +3
Mason-Dixon Aug 22 – Aug 24, 2016 625 Registered Voters	46	43		11	Rubio +3
ICITIZEN Aug 18 – Aug 24, 2016 600 Registered Voters	43	42		16	Rubio +1
Saint Leo University Aug 14 – Aug 18, 2016 1,380 Likely Voters	46	38		16	Rubio +8
Monmouth University Aug 12 – Aug 15, 2016 402 Likely Voters	48	43	3	5	Rubio +5
Opinion Savvy/Fox 13 Aug 10 – Aug 10, 2016 622 Likely Voters	45	43		12	Rubio +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist Aug 4 – Aug 10, 2016 862 Registered Voters	49	43	3	5	Rubio +6
Quinnipiac Jul 30 – Aug 7, 2016 1,056 Likely Voters	48	45	0	7	Rubio +3
Suffolk Aug 1 – Aug 3, 2016 500 Likely Voters	46	33		21	Rubio +13
NBC/WSJ/Marist Jul 5 – Jul 11, 2016 871 Registered Voters	47	44	2	7	Rubio +3
Quinnipiac Jun 30 – Jul 11, 2016 1,015 Registered Voters	50	37	1	12	Rubio +13
JMC Analytics (R) Jul 9 – Jul 10, 2016 700 Likely Voters	40	33	5	21	Rubio +7
SurveyUSA/Bay News 9/News 13 Jun 25 – Jun 27, 2016 1,678 Likely Voters	43	43	7	8
Quinnipiac Jun 8 – Jun 19, 2016 975 Registered Voters	47	40		10	Rubio +7
PPP (D) Jun 15 – Jun 16, 2016 508 Likely Voters	41	42		17	Murphy +1
PPP (D) Jun 2 – Jun 5, 2016 737 Likely Voters	43	44		13	Murphy +1
Associated Industries of Florida (R) Apr 25 – Apr 27, 2016 604 Likely Voters	49	41		10	Rubio +8
PPP (D) Sep 11 – Sep 13, 2015 814 Likely Voters	46	40		14	Rubio +6
PPP (D) Mar 19 – Mar 22, 2015 923 Likely Voters	48	41		11	Rubio +7
Mason-Dixon Mar 3 – Mar 5, 2015 800 Registered Voters	50	38		12	Rubio +12
PPP (D) Sep 4 – Sep 7, 2014 818 Likely Voters	46	41		12	Rubio +5