### Clinton

**97.2%**### Trump

**2.7%**

Photos: Getty

In the event of a tie, the newly elected House of Representatives will elect the president, and the newly elected Senate will elect the vice president.

## Possible Electoral Vote Counts

When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college *electors* how to vote. In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion. If 51 percent of voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors will vote for Clinton — and none will vote for Donald Trump.

(Historically, a few so-called faithless electors have voted against popular opinion. They never changed the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.)

We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In **9.7 million** simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270 electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a **97.2 percent** chance of becoming president.

vote scenario

Our model found this scenario**0** times

## State-By-State Averages

In each state, we average recent polls and follow the trends to Election Day to find the most likely outcomes.

#### Probable electoral votes

**317**Probable Electoral Votes For Clinton

Polls suggest a 90 percent or higher chance Clinton will win in these states.

##### Key

Click or tap a race to see our calculations

##### State

##### Electoral Votes

##### Likely outcomes

**2.4**percentage-point Clinton lead in North Carolina**±3.5 points**, 19 times out of 20We simulated 5,000 random populations whose voting intentions correspond to poll results in this state. Here are 200 of these populations and the average.Percentage

Point LeadD+8D+40R+4R+8July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+2.4**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.3 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 3.8% undecided. We added
**1.3 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**91.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.4**percentage-point Clinton lead in Florida**±4.1 points**, 19 times out of 20We simulated 5,000 random populations whose voting intentions correspond to poll results in this state. Here are 200 of these populations and the average.Percentage

Point LeadD+10D+50R+5R+10July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+3.4**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.5 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 4.8% undecided. We added
**1.6 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**94.7%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**5.2**percentage-point Clinton lead in Colorado**±4.4 points**, 19 times out of 20We simulated 5,000 random populations whose voting intentions correspond to poll results in this state. Here are 200 of these populations and the average.Percentage

Point LeadD+10D+50R+5R+10July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+5.2**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.4 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 6.0% undecided. We added
**2.0 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**99.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**5.7**percentage-point Clinton lead in New Hampshire**±5.2 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+5.7**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.3% undecided. We added
**2.4 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**98.3%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**5.7**percentage-point Clinton lead in Wisconsin**±5.8 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+5.7**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.7% undecided. We added
**2.9 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**97.3%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**6.0**percentage-point Clinton lead in Pennsylvania**±4.6 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+10D+50R+5R+10July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+6.0**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.7 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 5.9% undecided. We added
**2.0 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**99.5%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**7.6**percentage-point Clinton lead in Michigan**±6.7 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+7.6**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.6 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 9.5% undecided. We added
**3.2 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**98.7%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**7.8**percentage-point Clinton lead in Minnesota**±5.8 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+7.8**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.9% undecided. We added
**3.0 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**99.6%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**8.0**percentage-point Clinton lead in Virginia**±5.2 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+8.0**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.1% undecided. We added
**2.4 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**99.9%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**9.1**percentage-point Clinton lead in New Mexico**±5.0 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+9.1**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 6.2% undecided. We added
**2.1 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**9.6**percentage-point Clinton lead in Maine**±6.7 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+9.6**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.4% undecided. We added
**2.8 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**99.7%**chance of winning here. - Two electoral votes in this state are allocated at the district level. We use Cook Political Report ratings for those:
**solidly Democrat**and**leaning Republican**.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**11.2**percentage-point Clinton lead in Oregon**±5.7 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+20D+100R+10R+20July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+11.1**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.2 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.3% undecided. We added
**2.4 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**12.3**percentage-point Clinton lead in Connecticut**±6.4 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+12.3**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.7% undecided. We added
**2.6 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**13.1**percentage-point Clinton lead in Washington**±6.6 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+20D+100R+10R+20July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+13.1**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.3% undecided. We added
**2.8 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**13.9**percentage-point Clinton lead in New Jersey**±7.8 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+13.9**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**5.4 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.3% undecided. We added
**2.4 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**15.8**percentage-point Clinton lead in Delaware**±6.5 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+15.8**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**4.1 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.3% undecided. We added
**2.4 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**18.5**percentage-point Clinton lead in Illinois**±5.6 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+18.5**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.2% undecided. We added
**2.7 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**22.0**percentage-point Clinton lead in Massachusetts**±9.3 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+22.0**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**6.7 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.8% undecided. We added
**2.6 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**22.4**percentage-point Clinton lead in New York**±5.8 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+22.4**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.5 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.0% undecided. We added
**2.3 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**24.3**percentage-point Clinton lead in California**±6.0 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+40D+200R+20R+40July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+24.3**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**4.1 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 5.6% undecided. We added
**1.9 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**25.9**percentage-point Clinton lead in Vermont**±6.3 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+40D+200R+20R+40July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+25.9**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.2% undecided. We added
**2.4 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**29.5**percentage-point Clinton lead in Dist. of Columbia**±13.6 points**, 19 times out of 20- Since we haven't collected enough polls for this state, we rely on Cook Political Report's Electoral College Ratings.
- The Cook rating for the Dist. of Columbia presidential race is:
**solidly Democrat**. Democratic candidates have won by an average of 29.5 points in all races with this Cook rating since 2004. - Ignoring national trends, the probability Clinton wins Dist. of Columbia is
**100.0%**.

**29.5**percentage-point Clinton lead in Hawaii**±13.6 points**, 19 times out of 20- Since we haven't collected enough polls for this state, we rely on Cook Political Report's Electoral College Ratings.
- The Cook rating for the Hawaii presidential race is:
**solidly Democrat**. Democratic candidates have won by an average of 29.5 points in all races with this Cook rating since 2004. - Ignoring national trends, the probability Clinton wins Hawaii is
**100.0%**.

**29.5**percentage-point Clinton lead in Rhode Island**±13.6 points**, 19 times out of 20- Since we haven't collected enough polls for this state, we rely on Cook Political Report's Electoral College Ratings.
- The Cook rating for the Rhode Island presidential race is:
**solidly Democrat**. Democratic candidates have won by an average of 29.5 points in all races with this Cook rating since 2004. - Ignoring national trends, the probability Clinton wins Rhode Island is
**100.0%**.

**29.9**percentage-point Clinton lead in Maryland**±5.9 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+40D+200R+20R+40July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+29.9**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.4 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.4% undecided. We added
**2.5 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of

**57**Battleground Electoral Votes

Both candidates have a decent chance of winning in these states.

##### Key

Click or tap a race to see our calculations

##### State

##### Electoral Votes

##### Likely outcomes

**2.8**percentage-point Clinton lead in Nevada**±4.4 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+8D+40R+4R+8July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+2.8**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 4.4% undecided. We added
**1.5 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**89.4%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**0.7**percentage-point Clinton lead in Ohio**±4.6 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+8D+40R+4R+8July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**D+0.7**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 5.3% undecided. We added
**1.8 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Clinton has a
**60.9%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**1.0**percentage-point Trump lead in Arizona**±5.7 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+8D+40R+4R+8July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+1.0**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.5 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 6.6% undecided. We added
**2.2 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**63.5%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**1.3**percentage-point Trump lead in Iowa**±6.3 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+8D+40R+4R+8July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+1.3**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.4 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.5% undecided. We added
**2.8 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**65.6%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.3**percentage-point Trump lead in Georgia**±4.4 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+10D+50R+5R+10July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+2.3**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 4.6% undecided. We added
**1.5 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**85.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of

**164**Probable Electoral Votes For Trump

Polls suggest a 90 percent or higher chance Trump will win in these states.

##### Key

Click or tap a race to see our calculations

##### State

##### Electoral Votes

##### Likely outcomes

**5.1**percentage-point Trump lead in South Carolina**±5.8 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+5.1**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.3 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.7% undecided. We added
**2.6 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**95.6%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**5.7**percentage-point Trump lead in Texas**±5.7 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+5.7**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.5 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 6.7% undecided. We added
**2.2 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**97.6%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**7.8**percentage-point Trump lead in Missouri**±5.9 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+7.8**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.2 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.1% undecided. We added
**2.7 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**99.5%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**8.4**percentage-point Trump lead in Mississippi**±6.0 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+8.4**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 6.4% undecided. We added
**2.1 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**99.7%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**8.4**percentage-point Trump lead in Alaska**±6.0 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+8.4**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.5 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.6% undecided. We added
**2.5 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**99.7%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**9.2**percentage-point Trump lead in Indiana**±5.4 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+9.2**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**2.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.8% undecided. We added
**2.6 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**9.6**percentage-point Trump lead in Utah**±6.1 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+9.6**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.4 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.9% undecided. We added
**2.6 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**99.9%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**11.2**percentage-point Trump lead in Kansas**±6.4 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+16D+80R+8R+16July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+11.2**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.3 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 9.3% undecided. We added
**3.1 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**12.1**percentage-point Trump lead in Tennessee**±6.8 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+20D+100R+10R+20July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+12.1**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.7 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 9.3% undecided. We added
**3.1 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**12.8**percentage-point Trump lead in Louisiana**±6.0 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+20D+100R+10R+20July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+12.9**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.1 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 8.7% undecided. We added
**2.9 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**16.6**percentage-point Trump lead in Nebraska**±7.3 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+16.6**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 10.4% undecided. We added
**3.5 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here. - Three electoral votes in this state are allocated at the district level. We use Cook Political Report ratings for those:
**solidly Republican**,**toss-up**and**solidly Republican**.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**16.9**percentage-point Trump lead in Arkansas**±6.2 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+16.9**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**4.2 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 5.9% undecided. We added
**2.0 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**18.1**percentage-point Trump lead in Alabama**±5.9 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+18.1**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**4.1 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 5.5% undecided. We added
**1.8 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**18.4**percentage-point Trump lead in Idaho**±7.3 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+18.3**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**4.9 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 7.2% undecided. We added
**2.4 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**21.7**percentage-point Trump lead in Kentucky**±5.8 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+40D+200R+20R+40July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+21.7**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**4.1 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 4.9% undecided. We added
**1.6 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**23.1**percentage-point Trump lead in Oklahoma**±5.9 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+23.1**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.6 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 6.9% undecided. We added
**2.3 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**23.7**percentage-point Trump lead in West Virginia**±5.5 points**, 19 times out of 20Percentage

Point LeadD+30D+150R+15R+30July 1Nov. 8Election DayLoading…Latest Average**R+23.7**- These simulations show a margin of error of
**3.8 percentage points**, 19 times out of 20. - They also suggest voters are 5.2% undecided. We added
**1.7 points**to our state-level and national margins of error. - Ignoring national trends, Trump has a
**100.0%**chance of winning here.

Poll data from HuffPost Pollster- These simulations show a margin of error of
**28.9**percentage-point Trump lead in Montana**±14.5 points**, 19 times out of 20- The Cook rating for the Montana presidential race is:
**solidly Republican**. Republican candidates have won by an average of 28.9 points in all races with this Cook rating since 2004. - Ignoring national trends, the probability Trump wins Montana is
**100.0%**.

**28.9**percentage-point Trump lead in North Dakota**±14.5 points**, 19 times out of 20- The Cook rating for the North Dakota presidential race is:
**solidly Republican**. Republican candidates have won by an average of 28.9 points in all races with this Cook rating since 2004. - Ignoring national trends, the probability Trump wins North Dakota is
**100.0%**.

**28.9**percentage-point Trump lead in South Dakota**±14.5 points**, 19 times out of 20- The Cook rating for the South Dakota presidential race is:
**solidly Republican**. Republican candidates have won by an average of 28.9 points in all races with this Cook rating since 2004. - Ignoring national trends, the probability Trump wins South Dakota is
**100.0%**.

**28.9**percentage-point Trump lead in Wyoming**±14.5 points**, 19 times out of 20- The Cook rating for the Wyoming presidential race is:
**solidly Republican**. Republican candidates have won by an average of 28.9 points in all races with this Cook rating since 2004. - Ignoring national trends, the probability Trump wins Wyoming is
**100.0%**.

## Methodology

We calculate the probable outcome in each state, and then we use those probabilities to determine the likely electoral vote count on election night.

### 1. State-By-State Averages

We estimate the likely outcome in each state using publicly available polls in the HuffPost Pollster database. We use Pollster’s Bayesian Kalman filter model to simulate 100,000 populations whose voting intentions correspond to the poll results. (We sample 5,000 of those simulations in our calculations, for speed.)

When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands.

We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories. Projections will become more certain as more polls are published.

The model also estimates what proportion of voters in each state is currently undecided, according to the polls. We assume one-third of undecided voters won’t vote; one-third will gravitate nationally toward either candidate; and the remaining one-third will add to this state’s margin of error by the formula: *percent undecided ÷ 3*.

To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state.

Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves.

### 2. Likely Vote Counts

Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages.

In each simulation, we generate a result for each state based on:

- Our state-by-state averages
- The uncertainty in our average of national polls
- The way one-third of undecided voters may vote

We calculate the expected correlations among the state-by-state averages by finding the correlations of the Democratic vote shares in each state from 1932 to 2012. Our simulated vote results are correlated in the same way, and they also agree with each state’s polls.

Each year, the aggregate of polls tends to miss the mark by a few percentage points. We simulate this using the uncertainty in our average of national polls.

We also assume one-third of undecided voters nationwide may gravitate toward one candidate or the other.

The proportion of times Clinton wins 270 or more electoral votes is the probability she becomes president. The proportion of times Trump wins 270 or more electoral votes is the probability he becomes president.

Download our TSV file for likely vote counts.

Find out more about our methodology.