The Pollster estimate for the 2012 presidential election. For 2012 election results, click here.
This is an archived version of the presidential outlook from Tuesday, Oct. 9. Click here for the latest outlook »
Barack Obama
263
Electoral Votes
270 to win
Mitt Romney
206
Electoral Votes
241 Strong Obama
22 Leans Obama
69 Tossup
15 Leans Romney
191 Strong Romney
Each state is sized in proportion to its number of electoral votes.
Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day.
State by State
Democrat
Republican
| Pollster Outlook | Past results | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral votes | Obama | Romney | Margin | '08 | '04 | '00 |
| Alabama | 9 | 35% | 58% | Romney +23 | R | R | R |
| Alaska | 3 | R | R | R | |||
| Arizona | 11 | 42% | 52% | Romney +10 | R | R | R |
| Arkansas | 6 | 34% | 60% | Romney +26 | R | R | R |
| California | 55 | 57% | 38% | Obama +19 | D | D | D |
| Colorado | 9 | 47% | 47% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| Connecticut | 7 | 52% | 42% | Obama +10 | D | D | D |
| Delaware | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| District of Columbia | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| Florida | 29 | 47% | 48% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| Georgia | 16 | 40% | 54% | Romney +14 | R | R | R |
| Hawaii | 4 | 62% | 32% | Obama +30 | D | D | D |
| Idaho | 4 | R | R | R | |||
| Illinois | 20 | 56% | 37% | Obama +19 | D | D | D |
| Indiana | 11 | 41% | 52% | Romney +11 | D | R | R |
| Iowa | 6 | 49% | 44% | Obama +5 | D | R | D |
| Kansas | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Kentucky | 8 | 37% | 57% | Romney +20 | R | R | R |
| Louisiana | 8 | 39% | 55% | Romney +16 | R | R | R |
| Maine | 4 | 55% | 38% | Obama +17 | D | D | D |
| Maryland | 10 | 56% | 38% | Obama +18 | D | D | D |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 57% | 37% | Obama +20 | D | D | D |
| Michigan | 16 | 50% | 43% | Obama +7 | D | D | D |
| Minnesota | 10 | 50% | 43% | Obama +7 | D | D | D |
| Mississippi | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Missouri | 10 | 42% | 51% | Romney +9 | R | R | R |
| Montana | 3 | 43% | 51% | Romney +8 | R | R | R |
| Nebraska | 5 | 40% | 53% | Romney +13 | R* | R | R |
| Nevada | 6 | 49% | 46% | Obama +3 | D | R | R |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 51% | 44% | Obama +7 | D | D | R |
| New Jersey | 14 | 52% | 41% | Obama +11 | D | D | D |
| New Mexico | 5 | 50% | 43% | Obama +7 | D | R | D |
| New York | 29 | 59% | 35% | Obama +24 | D | D | D |
| North Carolina | 15 | 45% | 49% | Romney +4 | D | R | R |
| North Dakota | 3 | 41% | 53% | Romney +12 | R | R | R |
| Ohio | 18 | 48% | 46% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 29% | 65% | Romney +36 | R | R | R |
| Oregon | 7 | 50% | 43% | Obama +7 | D | D | D |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 49% | 44% | Obama +5 | D | D | D |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 59% | 34% | Obama +25 | D | D | D |
| South Carolina | 9 | 41% | 53% | Romney +12 | R | R | R |
| South Dakota | 3 | 42% | 52% | Romney +10 | R | R | R |
| Tennessee | 11 | 41% | 52% | Romney +11 | R | R | R |
| Texas | 38 | 39% | 55% | Romney +16 | R | R | R |
| Utah | 6 | 27% | 67% | Romney +40 | R | R | R |
| Vermont | 3 | 66% | 28% | Obama +38 | D | D | D |
| Virginia | 13 | 47% | 47% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| Washington | 12 | 55% | 39% | Obama +16 | D | D | D |
| West Virginia | 5 | 38% | 56% | Romney +18 | R | R | R |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 49% | 45% | Obama +4 | D | D | D |
| Wyoming | 3 | R | R | R | |||
*In 2008, Nebraska's electoral votes were split. McCain took four of the state's five electoral votes and Obama took one.
By Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe and Andrei Scheinkman. Statistical model created by Simon Jackman.