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The Pollster estimate for the 2012 presidential election. For 2012 election results, click here.

This is an archived version of the presidential outlook from Wednesday, Oct. 31.  Click here for the latest outlook »
Barack Obama

Barack Obama

259
Electoral Votes
270 to win
Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney

206
Electoral Votes

Delaware

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama

California

55 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
56%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
53%
Romney
42%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
87%
Romney
8%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%

Hawaii

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
62%
Romney
33%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%

Illinois

20 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
57%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
58%
Romney
38%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Maryland

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
57%
Romney
38%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Maine

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
53%
Romney
41%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Michigan

16 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
44%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New Jersey

14 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
52%
Romney
42%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New York

29 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
60%
Romney
36%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
59%
Romney
35%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%

Vermont

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
65%
Romney
30%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%

Washington

12 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
54%
Romney
41%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
51%
Romney
44%
Confidence of Obama lead
99%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New Mexico

5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
51%
Romney
43%
Confidence of Obama lead
99%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Oregon

7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
45%
Confidence of Obama lead
98%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
45%
Confidence of Obama lead
99%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
46%
Confidence of Obama lead
98%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Nevada

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
47%
Confidence of Obama lead
93%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Iowa

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
46%
Confidence of Obama lead
91%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Ohio

18 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
48%
Romney
46%
Confidence of Obama lead
92%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
49%
Romney
47%
Confidence of Obama lead
81%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Colorado

9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
48%
Romney
47%
Confidence of Obama lead
62%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Virginia

13 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
48%
Romney
48%
Confidence of Romney lead
56%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Florida

29 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
47%
Romney
49%
Confidence of Romney lead
75%
Click to see chart and latest polls

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Romney
Obama
46%
Romney
50%
Confidence of Romney lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

South Carolina

9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
42%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
90%

Alabama

9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
36%
Romney
59%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
34%
Romney
61%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Arizona

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Georgia

16 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Idaho

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
30%
Romney
65%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Indiana

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
41%
Romney
54%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Kentucky

8 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
38%
Romney
57%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Louisiana

8 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
36%
Romney
58%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Missouri

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Montana

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

North Dakota

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
40%
Romney
54%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Nebraska

5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
40%
Romney
55%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
32%
Romney
63%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
42%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
41%
Romney
54%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Texas

38 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
40%
Romney
56%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Utah

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
24%
Romney
71%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
39%
Romney
56%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Alaska

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Kansas

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Mississippi

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Wyoming

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
217 Strong Obama
42 Leans Obama
73 Tossup
15 Leans Romney
191 Strong Romney
Each state is sized in proportion to its number of electoral votes.
Recent changes RSS
10/31 L L Iowa
10/30 a a N.C.
10/30 i i Ohio
10/29 l l Pa.
Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day.
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State by State

Democrat
Republican
Pollster Outlook Past results
State Electoral votes Obama Romney Margin '08 '04 '00
B Alabama 9 36% 59% Romney +23 R R R
A Alaska 3 R R R
C Arkansas 6 34% 61% Romney +27 R R R
H Delaware 3 D D D
y District of Columbia 3 87% 8% Obama +79 D D D
K Hawaii 4 62% 33% Obama +29 D D D
M Idaho 4 30% 65% Romney +35 R R R
P Kansas 6 R R R
Q Kentucky 8 38% 57% Romney +19 R R R
R Louisiana 8 36% 58% Romney +22 R R R
Y Mississippi 6 R R R
j Oklahoma 7 32% 63% Romney +31 R R R
m Rhode Island 4 59% 35% Obama +24 D D D
n South Carolina 9 42% 53% Romney +11 R R R
t Vermont 3 65% 30% Obama +35 D D D
x Wyoming 3 R R R
*In 2008, Nebraska's electoral votes were split. McCain took four of the state's five electoral votes and Obama took one.

By Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe and Andrei Scheinkman. Statistical model created by Simon Jackman.