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The Pollster estimate for the 2012 presidential election. For 2012 election results, click here.

This is an archived version of the presidential outlook from Tuesday, Sept. 25.  Click here for the latest outlook »
Barack Obama

Barack Obama

332
Electoral Votes
270 to win
Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney

191
Electoral Votes

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama

Delaware

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama

Hawaii

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama

California

55 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
58%
Romney
36%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
55%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Illinois

20 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
58%
Romney
35%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
56%
Romney
37%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Maryland

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
58%
Romney
35%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Maine

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
54%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Michigan

16 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
52%
Romney
41%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
51%
Romney
41%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New Jersey

14 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
54%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New Mexico

5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
52%
Romney
40%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Nevada

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
44%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New York

29 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
60%
Romney
33%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Ohio

18 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
43%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
41%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Vermont

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
63%
Romney
30%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%

Washington

12 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
54%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
51%
Romney
43%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Oregon

7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
42%
Confidence of Obama lead
99%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Virginia

13 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
45%
Confidence of Obama lead
98%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Colorado

9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
45%
Confidence of Obama lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Florida

29 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
45%
Confidence of Obama lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Iowa

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
48%
Romney
44%
Confidence of Obama lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
48%
Romney
45%
Confidence of Obama lead
83%
Click to see chart and latest polls

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
48%
Romney
46%
Confidence of Obama lead
74%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Indiana

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Romney
Obama
44%
Romney
49%
Confidence of Romney lead
91%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Arizona

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Romney
Obama
44%
Romney
49%
Confidence of Romney lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Missouri

10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Romney
Obama
44%
Romney
49%
Confidence of Romney lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

South Carolina

9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
42%
Romney
50%
Confidence of Romney lead
92%

Nebraska

5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
40%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
49%
Confidence of Romney lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Montana

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
50%
Confidence of Romney lead
98%
Click to see chart and latest polls

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
41%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
99%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Alabama

9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
37%
Romney
56%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
36%
Romney
57%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Georgia

16 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
51%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Kentucky

8 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
39%
Romney
54%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

North Dakota

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
39%
Romney
54%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
31%
Romney
62%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%

Texas

38 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
41%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Utah

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
29%
Romney
64%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
40%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls

Alaska

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Idaho

4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Kansas

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Louisiana

8 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Mississippi

6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney

Wyoming

3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
271 Strong Obama
61 Leans Obama
15 Tossup
32 Leans Romney
159 Strong Romney
Each state is sized in proportion to its number of electoral votes.
Recent changes RSS
9/25 D D Ariz.
9/24 g g Nev.
9/24 F F Colo.
9/24 O O Ind.
9/24 X X Mo.
9/24 v v Wis.
Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day.
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State by State

Democrat
Republican
Pollster Outlook Past results
State Electoral votes Obama Romney Margin '08 '04 '00
B Alabama 9 37% 56% Romney +19 R R R
A Alaska 3 R R R
C Arkansas 6 36% 57% Romney +21 R R R
H Delaware 3 D D D
y District of Columbia 3 D D D
K Hawaii 4 D D D
M Idaho 4 R R R
P Kansas 6 R R R
Q Kentucky 8 39% 54% Romney +15 R R R
R Louisiana 8 R R R
Y Mississippi 6 R R R
j Oklahoma 7 31% 62% Romney +31 R R R
m Rhode Island 4 D D D
n South Carolina 9 42% 50% Romney +8 R R R
t Vermont 3 63% 30% Obama +33 D D D
x Wyoming 3 R R R
*In 2008, Nebraska's electoral votes were split. McCain took four of the state's five electoral votes and Obama took one.

By Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe and Andrei Scheinkman. Statistical model created by Simon Jackman.